On 2^nd April, Nintendo will properly unveil the Switch 2. This could involve some big-game announcements. So it’s time to speculate wildly, and potentially for the last time (at least in this generation).

I recently finished playing Mario Sunshine, which might be the most frustrating game that Nintendo has ever made (it’s great, and I enjoyed it, but it is rough around the edges). With the Switch 2 imminent, it got me thinking: what can we expect from the next 3D Mario game?

A Killer App

Every Nintendo console, since Mario 64 on the N64, has had a new 3D Mario game: Sunshine for GameCube, Galaxy 1+2 for Wii, 3D World for Wii U, and Odyssey for Switch 1. There was also 3D Land on 3DS. I guess you can count Mario 64 DS as well. There will be a new 3D Mario for Switch 2 (of course there will be; it’s 3D Mario).

But more than that, the new 3D Mario has a good chance of being a launch title. Or even the launch title.

The Switch 1 launch was centred on Zelda: Breath of the Wild. A killer app that demonstrated, right out of the box, why you needed a Switch. In the following months, Nintendo kept a steady release schedule of big games, including Mario Odyssey. But at first, it was all about Zelda (plus a few smaller games).

Given how successful the Switch has been, they may adopt a similar strategy. It could be even more successful this time, given that they’ll have third-party support from the get-go (after the Wii U’s failure, many developers were reluctant to support the Switch. Its success caught them unprepared).

Nintendo probably has several games ready for launch. We’ve glimpsed Mario Kart 9 already, and I reckon that they’ll do a port of Metroid Prime 4 as well. It may also have a ‘tech-demo’ game like Wii Sports or Nintendo Land. But it still needs a killer app.

It won’t be Zelda again. Tears of the Kingdom is still quite a recent game, and Echoes of Wisdom was only released a few months ago. It’ll probably be another couple of years before the next mainline Zelda game (though they might- finally – release a port of Twilight Princess HD).

And if the killer app can’t be Zelda, it will be Mario. None of Nintendo’s IPs are as big as Mario, and they’ve definitely got a new game ready. As I and others have continuously noted, Odyssey was released nearly 8 years ago: they’ve got to have been working on something in that time.

There was a rumour that the 3D Mario team was working on a Donkey Kong game. That would be pretty cool, but I don’t believe that Nintendo would neglect to do any 3D Mario development. Not in 8 years.

And if the new 3D Mario is the ‘killer app’, I’m expecting it to be a huge game – even bigger than Odyssey.

New Hardware Mechanics

Trying to predict Nintendo’s actions is a futile task. They do a lot of weird stuff. Still, there is a method to their madness, and there are a few features we can expect the new 3D Mario game to include.

First, every 3D Mario game has a new gameplay mechanic/move set that utilises unique hardware features, like motion controls or touchscreen.

Mario 64 was, obviously, the first 3D game (also, Mario could punch people); Sunshine had the F.L.O.O.D. jet pack/water canon, which utilised the GameCube’s analogue triggers; Galaxy 1& 2 used the Wii motion controls to do spinning jumps and had a curser for collecting and shooting ‘Star-bits’; 3D Land was designed around the 3DS’ stereoscopic 3D.

3D World and Odyssey, whilst having many unique features, were less dependent on their specific hardware. But they did have a few minor hardware-related features. 3D World, for the Wii U, has a few touchscreen moments, and Odyssey occasionally uses the Switch’s HD Rumble.

The use of specific hardware features is seldom excessive or in-your-face with Mario games; most have been ported to hardware lacking the required feature. But there is nearly always an attempt to use them.

It’s a reasonable bet that the next 3D Mario game will do this as well. Nintendo has yet to do a deep dive into the Switch 2’s abilities (just a couple more days to go), but we do know a bit. Notably, we know that the Joy-Cons can be used as Mouse devices (Joy-Con Mice?).

There could be some small and non-essential moments that utilise the mouse feature.

This could be annoying if it’s overdone, so I reckon they’ll keep it to a minimum and perhaps have some alternative options like a touchscreen or cursor option. But I do think they’ll try to use the Joy-Con Mouse. Nintendo can’t help but experiment with new controls (it’s why they’re great).

Regardless of what it is, there will be new mechanics, and some will probably try to take advantage of unique hardware features. But, as I said, Nintendo is unpredictable: in Odyssey, Mario can possess a frog!

An Open World?

When I said Nintendo hasn’t released a 3D Mario game since Odyssey, that wasn’t entirely true. In 2021, packaged with the Switch port of 3D World, they released the excellent Bowser’s Fury.

This wasn’t a full game. It was a reworking of 3D World’s assets that you can play in just a few hours. It was a lot of fun, though. It kind of felt like the Mario team was experimenting with creating an open world.

Most 3D Mario games have a hub world or map (or both) where you select different levels. Odyssey mixed things up a little. Its levels are integrated into open-world-esc areas. But even Odyssey had a map/menu for selecting the different areas.

Bowser’s Fury took the next logical step. It has a small open world, with some initially inaccessible areas. Once those areas are unlocked, you can just walk to them (or swim/ride). Accessing the areas and levels feels totally seamless. I can’t recommend Bowser’s Fury enough.

The next 3D Mario could take this idea further and create a much larger open world.

In Bowser’s Fury, all the areas are thematically similar. They do a lot with it, but they all have the same aesthetic. Most Mario games have several different themes or worlds with thematically appropriate levels. In Odyssey, they had an urban world, a desert world, a tropical beach and many others.

There’s a good chance that a fully open-world Mario would let you walk, run and platform between different thematic areas and themes. No need for a menu, hub or map. You could walk from the Mushroom Kingdom to Bowser’s Castle.

 I’m now curious about the geography connecting these places. What does it look like?

There will probably need to be a way of traversing the world more quickly than just walking. Warp pipes are an obvious contender, but they seem more like a fast-travel option. Perhaps, in-universe, Bowser has ‘shut down’ the warp pipes, and you need to visit different areas to reactivate/unlock them. But the game could do more than just fast travel.

In Bowser’s Fury, you can ride a dinosaur (named Plessie) around the open world. It’s fun and satisfying to control and makes traversing the island world a faster, more enjoyable experience. A fully open-world Mario needs something similar.

Perhaps there will be a Mario Kart-esc option for traversal!

Final Thoughts

Whatever Nintendo comes up with, I’m sure it’ll be great. They are the masters for a reason. But a new move set, some cursor/mouse mechanics and a fully open world seem like a safe bet.

I’m also convinced it’ll be the main launch title, perhaps alongside a Metroid Prime 4 port. And that means it’s got to be big. And hey, it was probably going to be big anyway. It’s the first full 3D Mario for nearly a decade, after all.

Ideally, I’d like to see Mario visit DK Jungle and, having just played Sunshine, the triumphant return to Island Delfino. They won’t be in it. But I can dream!

We’ll find out soon enough though, just a couple of days to go!

-Dexter